South Bay Real Estate – Stagflation?

South Bay: Market Shrinking

In July the South Bay real estate market made a valiant attempt to maintain a positive stance. It failed. Compared to June of this year, things looked better on the sales volume side, but June was already in the tank, so even the summer bump was only modest help. Looking back to July of last year gave a depressing picture. Overall sales for the south Bay were off by 1%. In itself that’s not a huge number, but considering the market started this year at well over 10%, it’s a big drop in sales.

Median price was an even greater disappointment. In January every area of the South Bay was in positive numbers. By July, every area except PV (which has been negative four out of seven months), was shrinking.

Year to date numbers have overall pointed in an equally negative direction. For the first seven months of the year the South Bay is looking at a 6% increase in homes sold. Compared to the 11% that started the year, one has to conclude the local real estate economy is trending down. The median price tells an even more down-trodden perspective with nearly all areas showing prices falling by 1% to 3% from the same period in 2024.

Beach: A One Month Jump?

The number of homes sold in the Beach cities during July jumped to 130 units, up 11% from June sales. Keep in mind, the increase follows a 4% drop in June, which followed a 2% drop in May. Month to month sales have been erratic at the Beach, while annual sales volume has been steeply up compared to 2024. July sales continued the trend with a 10% increase over the same month last year.

Median price is another matter. At the Beach the median came in at $1,844,000, down 3% from June. July was the sixth successive decline in month to month median prices for the Beach area. Annually the median has shown mixed results compared to 2024, ranging from a 32% increase in January to a 1% decline in July. This drop in July followed another 1% decline in June, continuing what looks like a year long slide in median price and in sales volume. While still higher than in 2024, July was the second lowest month this year in terms of homes sold.

Cumulative sales for 2025 were 23% higher than 2024, though still down 15% from 2019, the last normal year of business preceding the pandemic. For the same period, the median price is up 9% over last year, while coming in at 49% above the median in 2019.

Harbor: Volume and Median Down

July was not a positive month for the Harbor area. Compared to June, sales volume and median price both fell by 8%. The number of homes sold for the month fell to 307 units, while the median price dropped to $775,000. This was the steepest monthly drop seen at the Harbor in 2025.

Annual statistics weren’t any better. Looking back to July of 2024, shows sales volume declined by 3%, and the median price fell 9%, the largest annual drop this year. If the current trend continues for the balance of the year, Harbor area real estate may take a serious hit.

Year to date sales through July came in at 3%. While still positive, it’s important to note the Harbor started the year with sales volume at 10% and has been dropping all year. Similarly, the median price has gone from 1% up in January to 9% down in July, ending the first seven months falling by 1%.

A quick comparison to 2019, shows year to date sales volume still down 20% from pre-pandemic business. Median price is still 43% above the 2019 median.

Hill: Strikingly Good

The Palos Verdes Peninsula saw a strikingly good real estate market in July. Month over month sales climbed an astonishing 53%. Of course, it’s not so impressive when one notes that sales dropped 34% last month. Even at that, 75 homes were sold in July, well above the average sold in any month for 2024 and the highest number in yet this year. At $2,185,000, a 13% increase over June, the median price was likewise the highest month for 2025.

Though not as dramatic, the year over year statistics were also impressive with a 3% increase in the number of homes sold compared to July of 2024. Increasing at 8% over July of last year, made PV the only area with a positive median price this month.

Viewing 2025 versus 2024 year to date sales brought another increase of 2%, roughly on par with the rest of the South Bay. Then came the only negative on the Hill for July—a drop of 1% in the median price.

Year to date sales compared to 2019 are still down by 11% , while the median price remains up by 44% from 2019.

Inland: Long Term Slowdown

July versus June numbers showed surprising strength for the Inland area. Those cities kicked the sales volume by 15%, with the number of homes sold climbing to 131 units. While boosting the median price 1%, to $979,000, the Inland area topped the market except for the highly volatile PV peninsula.

The monthly trend reversed with the annual statistics. July 2025 compared to July 2024 showed a 8% drop in the number of sales, accompanied by a 2% drop in the median sales price.

Year to date for the first seven months came with mixed results. Sales volume showed a 1% increase. For the same period, the median price dropped 3%, ending very much like all areas except the Beach, which continued to show positive results.

Once again looking back to 2019, before the real estate market was irremediably shaken by the Covid pandemic, current sales are down 15% and median prices are up 36%. With five months left in the year and economic forecasts leaning toward stagflation, this could well be a tipping point.

Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo
Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City
PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates
Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena