San Pedro Bay Cargo Forecast Study Underway

The ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles have commissioned a new long-term forecast to project the growth of containerized and noncontainerized cargo through 2050. The Tioga Group Inc. will conduct the study under a joint one-year contract with the two ports. The ports rely on long-term cargo forecasts for infrastructure planning, environmental analyses and identifying potential capacity constraints. Tioga’s work will involve reviewing existing cargo studies and forecasts, developing a new model based on foreseeable macroeconomic and global trade trends, evaluating competition from other ports and related market scenarios, and developing separate forecasts for containerized and noncontainerized cargo. To account for potential disruptions, Tioga’s model will have a new tracking feature that will allow the ports to adjust the forecast for unforeseen variables and emerging trends ahead of their impact whenever possible. Unexpected developments that have altered previous forecasts include routing and sourcing shifts, fluctuations in supply chain capacity, potential labor issues, global conflicts and security concerns, and crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The study and metrics tracking tool are due to be completed by year’s end. The ports are sharing the cost of the $224,000 contract.