Public Health Monitors Global, Local Data for Transmission Trends as Part of its Preparedness Efforts

As the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health or Public Health marks more than six weeks of steady COVID-19 metrics, not recording any significant changes in case, death or hospitalization numbers, officials continue to monitor global and local data in preparation for mitigating any potential increases in COVID-19 transmission in Los Angeles County.

Two of the indicators that Public Health officials are tracking are: Seasonal COVID-19 trends observed locally in past years and current COVID-19 transmission in the Southern Hemisphere from April through September, during their winter, foreshadowing respiratory illness patterns that could be seen in the Northern Hemisphere this fall.

Los Angeles County experienced a COVID-19 summer surge in 2020, 2021 and 2022, with COVID hospitalizations increasing by up to 300 percent between June 1 and August 1 in each of those years. While there are no current signs of a summer surge in Los Angeles County, Public Health continues to monitor data to assess the impact of large 4th of July gatherings and increased travel on transmission rates in the summer of 2023. As a precaution, residents are encouraged to continue common-sense measures against COVID-19, including staying home when ill, testing when COVID-19 symptoms or exposure are present, and staying up to date on vaccines.

Public Health officials also are monitoring changing COVID-19 trends throughout the Southern Hemisphere in anticipation of what to possibly expect in Los Angeles County this winter. Current global case trends from the Southern Hemisphere indicate that low COVID transmission in summer does not preclude a winter surge.

One month ago, Australia reported a 28% increase in COVID-19 cases and experts declared a seventh COVID wave after a summer of steady case levels. Between the first week of June and the first week of July, COVID-19 deaths in Australia nearly quadrupled. Currently, according to data from the World Health Organization, reported cases are trending upward in Chile and New Zealand. Other Southern Hemisphere countries, including Brazil and Kenya, saw an uptick in cases over the past month with trends now starting to stabilize. While reported case numbers are generally an undercount due to wide availability of at-home testing, they are a reliable indicator of trends in COVID-19 transmission.

As the global pandemic continues, there are many potential drivers that can cause a rise in cases, including increased dominance of new COVID-19 strains. Based on the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or CDC modeling for California and surrounding states, it is predicted that as of June 24, XBB.1.5 remains dominant, accounting for over 27% of COVID-19 cases with XBB.1.16 being the second most dominant, accounting for nearly 19% of cases. XBB.1.9.2 is estimated to account for about 15% of cases. The currently circulating COVID-19 strains in Los Angeles County are all descendants of Omicron.

Knowing that a virus with the potential for severe impact continues to circulate, Public Health maintains preparedness measures, including having therapeutics for COVID-19 treatment readily available at over 750 sites throughout the county and distributing test kits through libraries, community-based organizations, and Public Health vaccine sites. 

If people have questions about when to test, possible symptoms, recommended vaccines, or require telehealth services, the Public Health Call Center is available 7 days a week, from 8 a.m. to 8:30 pm, at 1-833-540-0473.